Matmen Don’t Know: 1A-District 4

So we’re going to try to be more transparent this year.

Lots of folks want to SEE our picks — and either breathe a sigh of relief or laugh at them, your mileage may vary — but what we have not done too often is EXPOSE them after the fact.

This year, we’re going to try to do better with that.

So, here’s our “afternoon after” review of 1A-District 4, where we’ll show you what went right, what went wrong, and what went sideways. You decide, as more sets of predictions come out as soon as tonight at 9 p.m. (ET), whether we know what we’re doing.

And let us know. Because we’re not always sure we know what we’re doing.

Here’s the brackets in case you want to refer back to them, and here’s our recap we wrote last night.

Predicted: 1. Clay. 2. Bolles. 3. Ridgeview. 4. Union Cty. 5. Wolfson. 6. University Christian. 7. Bishop Snyder. 8. Baldwin.
Actual: 1. Clay. 2. Union Cty. 3. Ridgeview. 4. Bolles. 5. (tie) University Christian & Wolfson. 7. Bishop Snyder. 8. Baldwin.

So I smiled when I opened my Facebook today and saw that an unspecified “they” had picked Union fourth. Am pretty sure that the only “they” out there (my GOAT colleague does not do district predictions) was, in fact, me, unless the Gainesville Sun now is in the business of it. Credit where credit is due, Union got out at 113 and wasn’t picked to do so, got out at 152 and wasn’t picked to do so, and got out at 285 and wasn’t picked to do so (however, I did select a Union 220 to make it out that didn’t compete, so that’s a push point-wise with 285). BUT. When you add a 195 that hasn’t by my count seen action all season, and it’s a three-person bracket, the placement points are a big boost, and could not possibly have been predicted. Plus I typically expect Bolles to peak at district time, and the Bulldogs did not have that same kind of peak — as a group — this year. I also thought Ridgeview would have two more of their stronger kids that did not weigh in Wednesday. You can’t always predict injuries, and again, kudos to Union for performing in the moment (just a heads-up, I can properly evaluate you if


Hey, we got this

106: We had the right two in the finals and in the right order. We had the right school taking third, although we were surprised by who Clay sent out at 106. I know that the Dodge family at West Port never had 2020 graduate Aspen and now-at-Flagler Palm Coast Bryce both wrestling in the boys’ post-season, so as far as I know, in north Florida at least, the Huckelberrys, Dalton & Savanna, are the first brother-sister combo to qualify out for regions in the same season. Unlike our prediction, there was no fourth-place wrestler.
120: We got the correct four kids, and in the correct order. That was the only weight class where we were fully 4-for-4.
132: We projected the top three, and in the correct order, and we had the actual fourth getting out, just not at 132; we had Halfacre getting out at 26.
152: We had the right finalists and the right winner, and the third-place wrestler we did jave projected to go out, but did so at 160 instead of 152; we didn’t have Malone at 160 all year.

Do we got this?

113: We had the top two in the correct order, but did not have Union placing third (we were considering Waters at 120; we thought Union might throw a less-experienced kid in here), so our third was sent down to fourth instead.
182: Our top projected pick was weighed in at 170 instead of at this weight, and our runnerup choice moved therefore into the top spot; had we known that Larsen would go 170 and Bell would be at 182, we would probably have picked this correctly. We did get the third-place match right.
195: We had the top two kids and in the right order, and we thought there would be a third wrestler, but we did not think it would be coming from Union.
285: We had the top three and in the correct order of finish, but we hadn’t seen any results from Wilson going back to New Year’s weekend; we thought it might be the Tigers’ 220 that would return first.

Yeah, mistakes were made

126: Started with the wrong Clay kid at 126, although we had the right finish there. Our runnerup projection did not weigh in, so our third pick slotted up to second; I was considering the wrestler that placed third as a likely 132 choice, and he went all the way down to 26.
138: We got the champion pick correctly made, but things went sideways in a hurry after that. Our runnerup projection did not weigh in, and our third choice thereby moved up to second. The wrestler that placed third we had getting out, but at 145. And our fourth choice also did not weigh in, due to injury.
145: Again, we had the right champion pick — having Clay kids helps with that to a degree — but as noted earlier, we had runnerup choice Barineau here and not at 138, and our projected fourth did not weigh in.
160: With the finalists correctly picked and in the right order, how’d this one get away from us? We had our third choice at this weight actually weigh in at 170, where our #4 at that weight weighed in here. Our fourth choice at this weight could still make the region round, depending on the other three districts and how many they send to Bolles at this weight.
170: Had the right school winning (Clay, again), but our pick did not make the final district lineup, and Ridgeview’s moves saw them perform above our prediction in reaching the final at this weight, sending our runnerup choice to third. Our projected third did not weigh in.
220: We had the right champion pick, and the right school in the runnerup spot, but our choice did not wrestle. We had the correct third, and as we noted earlier, we thought it would be Union sending up someone that was our choice for 4th.

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