Matmen Don’t Know: 2A-District 4

So we’re going to try to be more transparent this year.

Lots of folks want to SEE our picks — and either breathe a sigh of relief or laugh at them, your mileage may vary — but what we have not done too often is EXPOSE them after the fact.

This year, we’re going to try to do better with that.

So, here’s our review of 2A-District 4, where we’ll show you what went right, what went wrong, and what went sideways. You decide, as our final sets of district predictions come out tonight at 9 p.m. (ET), whether we know what we’re doing.

And let us know. Because we’re not always sure we know what we’re doing.

Here’s the brackets in case you want to refer back to them, and here’s our recap we wrote yesterday afternoon.

Predicted: 1. New Smyrna Beach. 2. Matanzas. 3. St Augustine. 4. Seabreeze. 5. Belleview. 6. Deltona. 7. Mainland.
Actual: 1. New Smyrna Beach. 2. St Augustine. 3. Matanzas. 4. Belleview. 5. Seabreeze. 6. Deltona. 7. Mainland.

We got the championship pick correct, although the Barracudas lost certain points with no wrestlers at 106 or 170. That’s going to make the region title chase verrrrrrry interesting. But New Smyrna Beach took care of business. So did St Augustine. The Yellow Jackets can fool you. We’ve always sort of thought of them as being better at IBTs than duals; this year, they got good enough at duals to make the Region 1 round, and we had seen some good Matanzas efforts, particularly at Bi-County. Recency bias. We also thought Belleview would have some more trouble, but the Diamondbacks got some kudos from the champion coach Wednesday night and represented Marion County well in this very solid tournament.


Yeah, we got this

160: Only took us until 1-dadgum-60 to find that stupid acorn and go 4-for-4 on the picks. I thought it would be a fuller bracket than just four kids, though, but hey, don’t mess with a winning streak, amirite?
220: This was probably the weight I was the most sure of, of all the 14 weight classes, so it was kind of gratifying to go 4-for-4 here, and, side note, it was nice to actually chat with the champ. I don’t get to see Deltona and the other Volusia teams a ton during the course of the year, so that was cool.

Do we got this?

120: We flip-flopped the champion and runnerup picks (the seeding agreed with me, not that I was consulted or anything), and it was a very close match between Nguyen and Kerns. We had third place right, but our fourth got knocked off by the actual fourth by a single point.
126: Our champion and runnerup picks were dead-on (first time so far); our fourth went on to finish third, and I had the fourth at 126 in consideration at 120, which in retrospect would not have been that great of a move for him.
132: Champion pick was right, and we — more or less — had the right schools moving on, but the order was pretty off, with our projected fourth pinning projected third in the semis, while our runnerup choice got seeded fourth and had to face the champ in the semis.
138: We had the right 4 teams moving on at this weight, but the order was all over the place. We had the champion projected fourth (he was seeded 3rd), our champion pick was seeded second and the top seed got to the final. We thought Seabreeze would send somebody else up (the kid they did send up we projected at 132).
145: The seeds almost tracked my projection (my 3rd was seeded 4th, my 4th seeded 3rd). We got the finalists right and in the right order, but Seabreeze’s third-place finisher pinned our fourth and majored our third. Prove me wrong, I always say.
152: Right four kids, completely pear-shaped order compared to my projections. I have to say, this was one of the deepest groups to move on and I was surprised at the order of finish. The only one I got right was the third, though I did have the champion in the finals; he decked my champion pick in the semi.
170: We mostly had this one right, with the correct champ. Our projected runnerup did not weigh in, which I can only presume was due to injury, and our picks at third and fourth held the same order; they just met in the semis instead of for third. The actual 4th we had projected to be at 160, but perhaps with the injury to our runnerup, it was probably the wiser choice to bump.
195: This is another one where maybe I’m too strict on myself. I did get the top 3 correct, missing only on the 4th, who I thought might project at 182; I kind of was thinking maybe another teammate would be there. My projected 4th did not weigh in.
285: Had the champion right, but the runnerup I had projected for third (the seed was better than my projection; the runnerup was seeded second). My runnerup either was hurt or lost his weigh-in, and the kid who finished third also wrestled above his fourth seed as well as my projection that he’d be staying home. So again, prove me wrong, I always say.

Yeah, mistakes were made

106: We projected two region qualifiers that didn’t weigh in due to injury and whatnot. It’s tough to predict injuries, but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that the 2-3 projected choices held serve and stayed in the same order with the projected champ out.
113: We flip-flopped the champion and runnerup picks (the seeding agreed with my projection, not that there was coordination involved), but our picks to finish third and fourth did not compete Wednesday night.
182: Well, at least the champion was right. Our projected runnerup didn’t compete, and our projected third and fourth either were injured or lost wrestleoffs to the kids that actually did compete Wednesday night, but the schools’ order of finish did hold serve, as it were.

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