So we’re going to try to be more transparent this year.
Lots of folks want to SEE our picks — and either breathe a sigh of relief or laugh at them, your mileage may vary — but what we have not done too often is EXPOSE them after the fact.
This year, we’re going to try to do better with that.
So, here’s our “overnight after” review of 3A-District 2, where we’ll show you what went right, what went wrong, and what went sideways. You decide whether we know what we’re doing.
And let us know. Because we’re not always sure we know what we’re doing.
Predicted: 1. Buchholz. 2. Flagler Palm Coast. 3. DeLand. 4. University (Orange City). 5. Forest. 6. Seminole. 7. West Port.
Actual: 1. Buchholz. 2. Flagler Palm Coast. 3. University (Orange City). 4. DeLand. 5. Seminole. 6. West Port. 7. Forest.
Top two picks held to form. I sort of thought pre-season this would be Flagler star power versus Buchholz depth this year, and as it turned out FPC had more depth than I thought and Buchholz had more star power than I thought. The race for third was very close, and there it was the star power that University had — particularly up top — that was just barely enough to push past DeLand’s crew of seconds, thirds and fourths. Seminole’s been a hard team to evaluate; while I feel like I have all their results, the Noles never responded to my reach-out attempts and I wasn’t really sure what they’d have. They had a qualifier or two I don’t know by name, and that’s kind of rare at this point for me, to not know names. I thought Forest would have more in the fight this season.
Yeah, we got this
Narrator: Matmen did not, in fact, get this district.
Do we got this?
106: We had the right four kids qualify out, and the right two going for first and the right two going for third, but we missed on both matchups. The seedings agreed with me on 3-4 and didn’t agree with me on 1-2. That’ll happen.
113: We had a very small miss here, as we got the first three picks right and our fourth wound up fifth. The way the brackets were set up, though, I would not have been able to get all four right, as my projected fourth faced the champ in the quarters and then faced my third in the consi semis.
120: Or top three kids all got out as top three actually, but the order was off, as our runnerup pick was third, our third pick won, and our champ pick took second. Our fourth was in contention for it, but was beaten in the consi semis by the fourth seed, so the coaches had a better idea of the 4 than I did.
126: I thought this would be a fuller bracket than it was. I got the champion and runnerup picks correctly, but my third and my fourth did not weigh in. Had I known that might happen, I might have picked the actual third to be third, but I didn’t know that might happen.
152: Should this go into the MWM column? Maybe. But we thought Flagler would win this weight, and Flagler did win this weight. Just not our projection (come back next year, dude). We got the runnerup right, and we got the fourth right. We thought University would finish third here, and University did finish third here, just with our guy at 160.
160: Not a big miss, as we got the first three picks right and in the right order. We had notes on the actual fourth, but not to get out automatically. Our fourth projected pick was third at 52; the wrestler we thought would be at 52 was here and finished sixth.
195: We had the right champion, and if you forgive us not knowing what Flagler was going to do up top, the rest of our picks held form, but I think had I known Flagler’s order I still would have gone the way I did, so kudos to Frederick for overperforming my expectation, and defending his 2 seed.
Yeah, mistakes were made
132: This one got away from me pretty quickly, again with a smaller bracket than I expected. My champion pick did not weigh in, and neither did my third. My runnerup choice went on to win and my fourth choice went on to finish second, so there’s that, but I didn’t have notes that the actual 3rd would be the guy at this weight. West Port was another difficult team to track.
138: So…another district with issues trying to figure who goes 38 and who goes 45. The good parts? Well, we got the champ right, and we got the fourth-place finisher right. Our choice at 138 did not weigh in and the actual runnerup we had placing third at 145, so this was better for him. We had the actual third in our notes, but not placing.
145: Are you guys sure you should read me for these over the next two weeks? Yes, we got the champion right, but our runnerup projection wound up winning 152, our projection for third wound up second at 138 and our projection for fourth reached the final. Our runnerup at 138 placed third at this weight, and the actual fourth we weren’t sure would start, and if he did, it would be at 152. Ugh.
170: This was another one that in part wasn’t too bad. We got the champion and the runnerup right, and I wasn’t sure if the champ was going to be here, or at 160 or even 152, to be honest. Where it went haywire was in the consis. The actual third we had notes on but not qualifying out, and he was seeded fourth, so he overperformed both our expectations and the coaches. So did the fourth, who drew the champ in the quarters and then teched the seeded third, our projected fourth.
182: We really weren’t sure what Flagler was going to do from 182-220, and maybe 285, too. With no injuries or transfers, this would have been where the actual champ would have been all year, but we thought he’d be up at 195. Our projected champ did make the final and we did have third correct (with a little help from Buchholz’s coach, who gave us his lineup). But I had no idea about the actual 4th being in the lineup.
220: Well…we got the champion right. I mostly did well with champions. I thought FPC’s 195 would be here, but Schell returned to the lineup in his usual spot at 220. I had nothing on the actual third and he was unseeded, so the coaches didn’t have a lot more than me. They had the actual runnerup correctly seeded, so they knew better than me.
285: Ugh. Good thing I’m ready for bed and not many folks will read this before they go to bed. Our projected fourth won the tournament. The runnerup we had notes on, but didn’t expect to place. We thought the season-opening 285 would be back for Flagler, rather than the actual 3rd. Our projected champ did not weigh in Friday. The closest thing we had to right was that our third had a chance to take third.