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DISTRICT IBTS

Matmen Don’t Know: 1A-District 3

So we’re going to try to be more transparent this year.

Lots of folks want to SEE our picks — and either breathe a sigh of relief or laugh at them, your mileage may vary — but what we have not done too often is EXPOSE them after the fact.

This year, we’re going to try to do better with that.

So, here’s our “day after” review of 1A-District 3, where we’ll show you what went right, what went wrong, and what went sideways. You decide whether we know what we’re doing.

And let us know. Because we’re not always sure we know what we’re doing.

Here’s the brackets in case you want to refer back to them, and here’s our recap we wrote yesterday.

Team
Predicted: 1. Yulee. 2. Episcopal. 3. Fernandina Beach. 4. Bishop Kenny. 5. Raines. 6. West Nassau. 7. Paxon. 8. Ed White.
Actual: 1. Yulee. 2. Fernandina Beach. 3. Episcopal. 4. Bishop Kenny. 5. Raines. 6. West Nassau. 7. (tie) Ed White & Paxon.

On the whole, we did a pretty good job with the team standings. I wasn’t sure if Ed White would have four kids. I thought it very possible they might only bring three, and I did think Paxon might bring six. Everything else largely held to form, with the exception of the 2-3 teams. If I had to guess at reasons for their re-positioning, I would say that Fernandina Beach has steadily gotten better over the course of the season, as befitting a team that has a sizable amount of experience in its veterans, and Episcopal, I think, found it hard to match its pace in December, as befitting a team that is still relatively inexperienced as a group.

So, given the amount of time I spent with a lot of these teams this year, and my relative success with predicting how the teams would shake out, I should do great with the individual weights, right?

Right? (he mumbles, into the void)

Individual

Yeah, we got this

113: I’ll count this one as a win here, with the right four kids moving on and the right champion and runnerup. We did have the third- and fourth-place wrestlers flip-flopped. One downside about there not being a full County event this year, for me at least since I have always gone every year, is that I had less of a handle on how the three teams might compete against each other.
126: We had the top three kids correct and we did have in our note that our projected fourth at this weight could be at 132, which was in fact where he wound up, and took fourth there. A quick note on Mahoney — he’s a four-time district champ, one of just four wrestlers anywhere in the coverage area (one district still to research yet) to win four or more district titles in their career this year. That’s exceptionally good considering Clay was in the district for two years.

Do we got this?

106: We’ll start with what we got right. We got the right runnerup. We got the right 3rd. So that’s something. Our champion pick at this weight wound up wrestling 120, and on the team he’s on they had room for that kind of move, and I certainly don’t begrudge anybody not wanting to cut that hard (wrestling-wise, it’s particularly hard at the lower end due to the higher percentages involved, and personally, because obviously if you’ve seen me). A clear miss, however, with Saldana, who had a much better record than I remember.
132: We had the correct champion, but not the right runnerup, as our projected runnerup went on to win at 138 (which if I’d known I would have picked him to win there as well). Our projected third went on to finish second and our fourth did not weigh in on Saturday.
145: This wasn’t really too bad of a miss in that we did have three of the correct four kids in the correct spots (though we were quite concerned about what Yulee was going to do at this stretch of the weights, with impacts to our picks from 152 on up to maybe 220). Our miss here was thinking that maybe our projected runnerup (still injured) would be available Saturday.
160: So I can’t really call this a win although I sort of had the right four kids (as I’ve noted, had I known Ricks would be at 60, he would still be the 1 choice), got the runnerup right, but had third and fourth flip-flopped. They actually met on the front side of the bracket, with my projection being correct there. Rematches. Oyy.
170: This one made me wish I could have stayed longer to see how this played out. Got the champion right (picking an eventual 3xer makes that pretty easy) and got 4th right. But my projected runnerup and third met in the quarters, the third won and my runnerup didn’t compete in consis.
285: I had the right champion and I had the right fourth. So, positives. My projected runnerup did not weigh in Saturday, and my projected third, as befitting the situation, did bump up a spot in the standings and placed second. The actual third I did not project to move on, and it was good to see an Episcopal kid prove me wrong.

Yeah, mistakes were made

120: What we got right? Well, we had the right champion. And we had the right school? in the runnerup spot. I wasn’t entirely certain what Episcopal would do with 113/120 even up to 126. Our third wound up fifth, we had him over our projected fourth/actual third in the medal match and the P4/A3 over-performed our expectation (prove us wrong). And the actual 4th we noted earlier.
138: So there were several issues with this one; starting with the champion (barely a salvage to say that we had the right school winning). We did have the correct person at runnerup (Editor’s Note: personal friend to our youngest son). Our projected third finished fourth, and we had notes on the actual third, but did not project him to move on. Another prove-Matmen-wrong situation for Fernandina in their favor.
152: We weren’t sure what Yulee would do, and in a head-to-head of district titans, we thought the senior would win at home (they wound up in different classes, which we did note in our Darkhorses section). With advance knowledge, we would have elevated our projected runnerup to first, but we also missed the third-place match; although, to be fair, it was a one-point win.
182: It’s not a pretty picture when the actual champ you have notes on but don’t even project to qualify out, and at the wrong weight to boot, and the kicker is, he’s a two-time district champ after his win Saturday. Do I actually cover this sport? I don’t know sometimes. I had nothing right. My projected champ was third — although the seeding did agree with me. My runnerup wrestled up a weight (again, Yulee), my third was second and my fourth also wrestled at 95.
195: I should almost stop writing here and pack it in until Friday at Bolles and just shoot pictures, no posts anymore. My projected champ was fifth (guys, he’s gonna be back, I still can’t believe he’s an 8th-grader). My projected runnerup did not weigh in, my third was third at 220 (again, Yulee) and I somehow got fourth right. Huzzah?
220: Dearest Mother, I soldier on in the writing front despite all odds against me. My projected champ won at 195 (where I would have picked him 1st also), my runnerup was right but my projected third wound up winning (another Fernandina record that was much better than I thought) and my projected fourth was the odd man out in the Yulee shuffle upward and did not weigh in.

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