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DISTRICT IBTS

#MatmenDon’tKnow: 1A-District 2

So we’re going to try to be more transparent this year.

Lots of folks want to SEE our picks — and either breathe a sigh of relief or laugh at them, your mileage may vary — but what we have not done too often is EXPOSE them after the fact.

This year, we’re going to try to do better with that.

So, here’s our “two days later” review of 1A-District 2, where we’ll show you what went right, what went wrong, and what went sideways. You decide whether we know what we’re doing.

And let us know. Because we’re not always sure we know what we’re doing.

Here’s the brackets in case you want to refer back to them, and here’s our recap we wrote on Saturday.

Team
Predicted: 1. Wakulla. 2. Suwannee. 3. Florida High. 4. Baker Cty. 5. Marianna. 6. Godby.
Actual: 1. Wakulla. 2. Florida High. 3. Baker Cty. 4. Suwannee. 5. Marianna. 6. Godby.

We had this pretty much right, with the exception that apparently Suwannee was a bit more dinged up, lineup-wise, than they — or we — would have otherwise liked. They bumped their starting 113 up to 120, where a senior was (unfortunate). And the Bulldogs have had uppers in the lineup that they did not seem to marshal toward districts on Saturday.

Individual

Yeah, we got this

126: We had the top three picks getting out, and in the correct order, and we had the right school taking fourth (somewhere in my results, when I get to inputting them after states, I’ll see when Baker made all these drops, because I wasn’t seeing them in my looks in at their tournaments).
132: Not quite as good as 126, but close enough, with the champion and runnerup correctly placed; we had our projected fourth place third, because our projected third at dropped to 126, where he was fourth. The actual fourth, we had taking fourth at 138, so we had that more or less right, where he would be.
138: We got the top three qualifying out and in the right order, and as we noted our fourth at this weight did take fourth, but at 132. We … did not have the actual fourth at this weight. He was evaluated at 152; so I must not have had late-season notes suggesting he’d drop 2 weight classes.
145: We had the right four getting out and the correct third and fourth (this one we got an assist from Florida High, as we were thinking a different name early last week), but we had the champion and runnerup flip-flopped.
160: We had the right four getting out, but we had the second and third flip-flopped. They did meet in the semis. We just didn’t get that semifinal picked correctly. They’ll be in the same region half as a second and third, so we’ll see if there’s a rematch.
220: We had the right four getting out, just missed on the third-place match, which went 7-4 in favor of a multiple-year roster member over a first-year post-season starter. I probably could have been a bit more aware of that particular intangible at work.
285: We had the right feel for this weight class, though we thought it would be one of the full ones (six deep) and it was only three deep. We had the right champion and runnerup — those were pretty chalk picks — and when our projected third didn’t weigh in, our projected fourth moved up.

Do we got this?

106: We had the first two picks and in the right order. Our projected third went to girls’ state, which was the right choice for her and for the program, but that program hasn’t had a detailed history of sending its girls to girls’ state. It is the right choice and they’re making a lot more of them. I didn’t have a Florida High 4th. Even the FSUS roster I was given before the tournament didn’t have a 106 (it was one of just two lineups I had to assist me in these picks).
152: Well…we had the right champion at this weight, but we didn’t expect a surge from Baker into the finals at this weight (we had him fourth) and our projected third did not weigh in and compete Saturday. The actual third we had notes on but we didn’t project him to qualify.
170: We had the right champion, although he was the 2 seed and the 1 seed — our projected runnerup — was not so dinged up that he couldn’t weigh in, but dinged up enough that he didn’t compete. Plus our projected third at this weight did qualify out, but was fourth at 182.
182: This was not a big miss; we had the right finalists and in the right order (match of the day in the finals). Our projected third did not weigh in (another multi-year Godby starter). So had we known that we would have moved our projected fourth up, and then added a Suwannee kid who also did not weigh in.
195: I’m being a bit harsh on myself at this weight; after all, I had the right four kids getting out and the right champion. But clearly my projections and the seedings did not match up; my projected finalists met in the semis, as did my third and fourth.

Yeah, mistakes were made

113: We had the right school winning. But we didn’t have the kid there. My projected runnerup took second at 120, and my projected third took third at 106 and for multiple reasons those were the right moves for them. I had a Florida High kid at this weight, and he performed a spot up from where I had him, but I thought there’d be four at this weight.
120: Our projected runnerup and fourth did not weigh in at all on Saturday, and our projected third dropped down to 13, where he took third there. We did have the right champion, however.

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